According to the latest outlook from AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm, the Warsaw office market is entering the final quarter of 2025 in a phase of clear stabilization, with quality, not quantity, defining the competitive edge. A limited pipeline, the ongoing withdrawal of obsolete buildings, and steady occupier demand are shifting market focus toward prime locations and modern, well-designed assets.

Analysts from AXI IMMO’s Research Department estimate that approximately 90,000 sqm of new office space will be delivered in Warsaw by year-end – a level consistent with 2024. At the same time, space under construction remains limited and is not expected to exceed 200,000 sqm, signalling a cautious approach from developers in launching new projects. Most activity is concentrated in central zones, where demand remains most resilient.

Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, AXI IMMO, commented: “The Warsaw office market is maturing. The drop in new supply is not a sign of weakness but part of a natural rebalancing process. We’re seeing more obsolete assets taken off the leasing market for full repositioning or major upgrades. It’s a clear sign that both landlords and tenants are becoming more discerning, and real product quality is steadily increasing.”

Total leasing activity in 2025 is expected to reach around 740,000 sqm, in line with 2024. Renewals continue to dominate the transaction structure, though demand for relocations remains steady – especially among tenants seeking improved standards, more efficient layouts, and better public transport access.

At the end of Q3 2025, the vacancy rate in Warsaw stood at approximately 9.7%, with significant differences between central and non-central zones. AXI IMMO forecasts a gradual decline in vacancy in the coming months, particularly in the most desirable buildings.

Bartosz Oleksak, Associate Director, Office Agency, AXI IMMO, added: “Simply being in a good district is no longer enough. Tenants are increasingly focused on micro-locations, metro access, commuting comfort, and the overall environment around the building. These factors played a key role in shaping lease-up speed and rent levels throughout 2025.”

Prime asking rents in Warsaw remained stable through year-end. In the city centre’s best-in-class buildings, rates are holding up to approx. EUR 27.5/sqm/month, while in non-central locations, rents begin at around EUR 9.5/sqm. Upward pressure on rates is seen mainly in modern new developments and refurbished assets that deliver high technical standards and ESG-aligned solutions.

Tomasz Michalczyk, Head of Office Agency, AXI IMMO, summarised: “The end of 2025 confirms that Warsaw’s office market is increasingly driven by quality and selectivity. For landlords, this means continued investment in upgrades and tailoring buildings to real tenant needs. For companies planning an office move, it means earlier planning and a strategic approach to site selection.”