According to estimates by AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest commercial real estate advisory firm, the industrial & logistics sector remained one of the most stable segments of the Polish commercial real estate market in 2025.

Despite a clear slowdown in new supply, tenant activity remained high, while key market indicators, such as vacancy rates and rental levels, remained broadly stable.

AXI IMMO analysts point out that the market has entered a phase of mature equilibrium, where decisions are made more cautiously but are firmly driven by companies’ real operational needs.

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Demand for warehouse space in Poland in 2025 – the third-highest result in the market’s history?

Total gross take-up of modern industrial & space in Poland in 2025 is expected to exceed 6 million sq m, making it the third-highest result in the market’s history. This figure is surpassed only by the record years of 2021–2022, when annual leasing volumes reached close to 7 million sq m. Lease renewals are gaining importance and currently account for around half of all leasing transactions.

Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial & Logistics, AXI IMMO, comments:

Anna Głowacz AXI IMMO

„With logistics networks now largely optimised, tenants are increasingly choosing to remain in proven locations, focusing on cost stability and operational efficiency.

Net demand, including new leases and expansions, could reach as much as approximately 3 million sq m over the course of 2025, in line with our forecasts.”

Anna Głowacz
Head of Industrial & Logistics at AXI IMMO

Stabilisation and new opportunities for logistics and industrial tenants, despite a decrease in supply.

On the supply side, developer activity has become noticeably more cautious. New completions in 2025 are estimated at approximately 1.8 million sq m, representing a significant decline compared to previous years and the lowest annual volume since 2016. New developments are primarily delivered on a pre-let basis or as build-to-suit projects, while speculative construction remains limited. Developers are focusing mainly on established markets with proven demand and on schemes tailored to specific tenant requirements.

Limited new supply, combined with stable take-up, is expected to keep the national vacancy rate around 8%.

Monika Rykowska, Head of Research, AXI IMMO, explains:

Monika Rykowska AXI IMMO

„In well-established markets, the availability of modern industrial & logistics space is gradually tightening, while higher vacancy levels are mainly observed in regions where a larger number of speculative projects were delivered in previous years.”

Monika Rykowska, Head of Research, AXI IMMO

How much will it cost to rent a modern big-box warehouse at the end of 2025?

At the end of 2025, prime headline rents for big-box space are expected to remain stable, ranging from approximately EUR 3.6 to EUR 6.0 per sq m per month, depending on location and building specification.

Following the period of rapid rental growth in 2021–2023, the market has entered a phase of rental stabilisation. Incentive packages have become more selective and are increasingly linked to lease length and transaction scale.

The year 2025 also confirmed several long-term trends shaping Poland’s industrial & logistics sector. These include the growing share of lease renegotiations, the continued expansion of e-commerce, and a stronger focus on ESG solutions and energy efficiency. Tenants are increasingly seeking properties with adequate technical infrastructure and solutions that help reduce operating costs and carbon footprint.

According to AXI IMMO experts, 2026 is expected to bring continued stable yet dynamic growth in Poland’s industrial & logistics sector, supported by solid economic fundamentals, further e-commerce expansion, and ongoing investment in transport infrastructure.

About AXI IMMO

AXI IMMO is the largest Polish commercial real estate advisory firm, providing services in leasing and investment transactions, industrial & logistics and office property management, property valuation, as well as the acquisition and disposal of development land. AXI IMMO’s key strength lies in combining international service standards with in-depth knowledge of local markets. The company has received numerous international and domestic awards, including Advisor of the Year and Local Advisor of the Year titles from organisations such as CEEQA, CEE Investment Awards, CIJ Awards and Prime Property Prize. Most recently, in 2025, AXI IMMO was awarded the title of Warehouse Agency Team of the Year by the Eurobuild Awards jury.

The AXI IMMO Research Department team at AXI IMMO conducts regular market analyses and provides reports and publications on the commercial real estate market.

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