Warsaw office market increasingly polarised

In Q1 2026, the Warsaw office market continues to confirm the thesis of its ongoing polarisation. Differences between central and non-central zones are evident in the quality of supply and availability of office space, as well as in developer activity. In practice, this means the market currently operates in two parallel realities governed by different supply and demand dynamics, according to a report published by the Research and Analysis Department of AXI IMMO, Poland’s largest advisory firm in the commercial real estate market, entitled “Office Market in Warsaw in Q1 2026.”

Vacancy rates: clear disparity between central and non-central locations

One of the most visible signs of polarisation is the availability of office space. At the end of Q1 2026, the average vacancy rate in Warsaw stood at 9.5%; however, this figure masks significant differences between individual city zones.

“In central zones, the vacancy rate stood at 6.5%, while in non-central locations it reached 12.2%, representing a gap of nearly 6 percentage points. The highest levels of vacant space were recorded in Służewiec district (18.7%), the Żwirki i Wigury corridor (15.4%), and along the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor (12.0%)”.

Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO

In central locations, the market is facing limited office availability, especially in the large, contiguous floorplate segment. Low space availability in the city centre translates into increased competition among tenants and upward pressure on rents in the most attractive projects.

Developer activity is concentrated in the city centre

Market polarisation is also reflected in the structure of new supply and investment activity undertaken by developers. At the end of Q1 2026, approximately 120,000 sq m of office space was under construction in Warsaw, of which over 110,000 sq m was located in central zones, while only around 4,000 sq m was in non-central areas. In practice, this indicates an almost complete concentration of new supply in the city centre. At the same time, 120,000 sq m under construction represents a 46% year-on-year decrease in development activity.

Emilia Trofimiuk, AXI IMMO, explains: “There are no new developments in non-central zones, which confirms developers’ selective approach and the concentration of capital in locations with the highest take-up potential and prestige”.

This part of the city hosts the largest and most advanced office projects, such as AFI Tower (approx. 50,000 sq m), developed by AFI Europe as part of the Towarowa 22 complex in Wola district, scheduled for completion in 2028, Skyliner II by Karimpol near Rondo Daszyńskiego, as well as Upper One by Strabag Real Estate on Al. Jana Pawła II.

“These developments are characterised by their large scale, high standard, and concentration in the most prestigious locations, responding to demand from tenants seeking modern, representative office space. The situation outside the city centre is very different, where investment activity is clearly limited and focuses mainly on smaller projects, such as Puławska 533, as well as the repositioning of older office complexes in areas such as Służewiec district or the Al. Jerozolimskie corridor. As a result, the structure of ongoing investments confirms the emergence of a ‘two-speed’ market model, in which the city centre attracts capital and new developments, while non-central zones remain areas of limited development activity and increasing price competition“.

Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO

Two markets in one city

A comparison of data on vacancy rates, rental levels, and developer and tenant activity indicates that the Warsaw office market is increasingly operating as a two-speed market. In the city centre, the segment of modern, prestigious developments is strengthening, characterised by limited space for lease and rising rental rates. Outside the centre, higher vacancy rates prevail, where competition is more strongly based on pricing and flexible lease terms.

The ongoing polarisation means that both tenants and building owners must adapt their strategies to the realities of specific zones. Differences between central and non-central locations are no longer merely a matter of address – they increasingly determine the operating model of entire segments of the Warsaw office market.

Autor

Emilia Trofimiuk, Research Manager, Research and Analysis Department, AXI IMMO

About AXI IMMO

AXI IMMO offers comprehensive advisory services related to commercial real estate, including warehouse and office leasing and property management, real estate valuation, land acquisition, and sales. The firm also offers B2B and B2C supply chain management services. AXI IMMO’s greatest advantage is combining international business standards with deep local market knowledge.

AXI IMMO has received numerous awards, including Best Local Agency of the Year in 2012–2019 and 2021 in the CiJ Awards and Best Team in the Warehouse Sector in 2016–2017. In 2019 and 2023, the firm was the winner in the Local Agency category, and in 2024, it was named Advisor of the Year at the CEE Investment Awards. AXI IMMO was named Local Agent of the Year in 2023 and 2024 in the CEE region at the CEEQA awards. The firm’s most recent achievement is the title of Advisor of the Year in the Prime Property Prize 2024.